Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
