Rising Rhetorical Battle Among Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Fears of Military Confrontation

Growing worries exist regarding the potential of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational language has escalated in the last month.

Red Sea coastline
Ethiopia and Eritrea cooperated in the armed struggle in northern Ethiopia but they have subsequently disagreed.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in the previous year that his country's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war started in which more than 100,000 people died.

Current Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and implied the wish to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for sea access calling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on recently that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Border

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast training completions of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations continued at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two signed a statement that the hostilities was finished – a action that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's previous armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet relations have later worsened again.

Lindsey Martinez
Lindsey Martinez

A seasoned business strategist with over 15 years in UK venture capital, specializing in scaling startups and market analysis.

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