The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge
Just two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the England international swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.