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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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