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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd